{"id":24323,"date":"2025-04-08T13:28:40","date_gmt":"2025-04-08T11:28:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/shaf-back.imholding.co.uk\/?p=24323"},"modified":"2025-04-13T13:30:44","modified_gmt":"2025-04-13T11:30:44","slug":"the-conflict-path-series-in-the-middle-east-and-africa-issue-no-42-march-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/shaf-back.imholding.co.uk\/en\/the-conflict-path-series-in-the-middle-east-and-africa-issue-no-42-march-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"THE CONFLICT PATH SERIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA ISSUE NO 42 March 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

Translated by\/ Abdulrahman Anwar<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Research assistant in the International Affairs Unit<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

Editorial<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Conflicts in the Middle East and Africa are a reflection of the complexity of long-standing conflicts, reflecting the way they interact, their duration, the behavior and demands of the actors, the conditions of the parties to settle them, the dynamism that characterizes them, the intensity of their competition, and the complexity of it.<\/h4>\n

This complexity increases in light of the interaction of these conflicts with global changes, as the interests of actors become more overlapping and complex, and the size of the challenges surrounding political settlements increases, so that the importance of careful follow-up of these interactions and analysis increases in a way that enables us to set the record straight to choose the most appropriate policies and prepare for the scenarios presented. In this issue, in addition to tracking regional conflicts, we approach their internal entanglements and international and regional interaction around them.<\/h4>\n

The forty-second issue of the monthly report \u201cthe course of conflicts\u201d issued by SHAF Center sheds light on the arena of conflict countries in the Middle East and Africa, and we track important issues in them, the most prominent developments, and local, regional and international interactions, and the report includes the conflict situation in ten countries, as follows (Ethiopia, Sudan, Somalia, Iraq, Yemen, South Sudan, Syria, Libya, Lebanon, and Mali).<\/h4>\n

Report overview<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Before shedding light on the developments of the conflict in the areas addressed, we present in general the conflict situations in the ten countries of concern before moving on to the detailed report:<\/h4>\n

Ethiopia:<\/u><\/strong> <\/span><\/h3>\n

Abiy Ahmed’s government always raises the slogan of peace and stability and inviolability of them, but the Ethiopian moves come contrary to that; taking the step of military industrialization and drones will constitute a development of its armament project in the region, and therefore; it may push to create an opportunity for an African arms race, and in this regard, it is worth noting the maritime access project to the Red Sea, which Addis Ababa intends to implement, and the existence of the idea of armament will make it move without deterrence to prevent it; if it threatens the security of the region, and therefore; it can resort to employing such weapons, under the pretext of deterring forces that could threaten them, according to their perception, and to fuel the conflict in a region that has not yet recovered from the impact of conflicts and security shocks.<\/h4>\n

Sudan:<\/u><\/strong> <\/span><\/h3>\n

The restoration of the Sudanese army to the vital areas in Khartoum may represent a turning point in the course of the war, especially after the retreat of “Hemedti”, and after nearly two years of devastation and destruction, this comes to constitute a glimmer of hope towards the liberation of Darfur as well, as happened with Khartoum, and even the liberation of all Sudanese lands, but fears about the division of Sudan remain, if achieved, will not push towards the fragmentation of Sudan alone, but also affect the region at a time when it suffers from the consequences of military conflicts, armed conflicts and the activity of terrorist movements, which makes the region in a state of boiling and security fragility, so it is imperative to take the national interest into account and prevent this tragic scenario.<\/h4>\n

Somalia:<\/u><\/strong> <\/span><\/h3>\n

March reflects a dual reality in Somalia; while security and humanitarian challenges continue, the country is taking steady steps towards promoting political stability and international openness, and regional and international movements show growing interest in Somalia as a pivotal partner in the Horn of Africa, underscoring the importance of continuing to support the Somali government in its efforts to combat terrorism, achieve sustainable development and alleviate the suffering of the Somali people.<\/h4>\n

Iraq:<\/u><\/strong> <\/span><\/h3>\n

The situation in Iraq during March 2025 is still witnessing a state of instability, despite the continuous efforts made by the government in various fields. Politically, Iraq has witnessed positive developments such as the signing of memorandums of understanding with other countries and the strengthening of international cooperation, but regional tensions and internal challenges remain a concern. Economically, Iraq seeks to strengthen its international partnerships to develop the energy sector and attract investments, but it is facing pressure due to global economic crises and challenges associated with energy resources. On the security level, despite successful counterterrorism operations, the presence of ISIS remains a threat, as it targeting the stability of the country. Therefore, Iraq appears to be pursuing significant efforts to secure its stability, but it still faces many challenges that require long-term strategies to achieve full stability.<\/h4>\n

Yemen:<\/u><\/strong> <\/span><\/h3>\n

Yemen in March witnessed a dangerous development, as the US administration ordered the implementation of a military campaign targeting the Houthis, in order to reduce its influence in the region, and despite the severity of these strikes and their implications as a dangerous escalation point in the Middle East, the expected results still seem blurry, especially as they come within the framework of the indirect threat from the United States to Iran, which may begin to abandon its last proxies in the region, in order to avoid engaging in a direct confrontation with the United States, and in the same context, the Houthis is working to reposition themselves inside Yemen, taking advantage of the geographical ruggedness in the Yemeni desert, as well as resorting to tunnels as an alternative strategy that provides it with longer-term durability, and on the other hand, signs of the decision to suspend the work of the United States Agency for International Development and to classify the Houthis as a terrorist organization began to appear sharply in Yemen, especially at the humanitarian level, and therefore the Yemeni government is intensifying its efforts in this context by mobilizing International and regional efforts to support the humanitarian situation in Yemen.<\/h4>\n

South Sudan:<\/u><\/strong> <\/span><\/h3>\n

There are fears of the expansion of the conflict in South Sudan, reaching the point of civil war, and repeating a tragedy that happened before, and in light of the moves taken by President Salva Kiir, which increase public discontent in the country, it is possible, that it will be the beginning of the end of his rule, and he may be ousted and replaced by a new president, and if he continues on the same path, the consequences will be dire, and will threaten the security and stability of Juba, so he must take into account the suffering of his people and refrain from his positions and find a solution to end this crisis.<\/h4>\n

Syria:<\/u><\/strong> <\/span><\/h3>\n

The security situation in Syria is deteriorating, as the events of the Alawite community on the Syrian coast, as well as the developments of the Druze community in the south, threaten the state with the danger of strife and division, in addition to the escalating Israeli danger and the continuation of mutual strikes between loyalist factions and the Syrian Democratic Forces, but on the other hand, there seem to be positive indicators to some extent, looming on the horizon, at the political and economic levels, as the country’s constitutional declaration was signed, and the first official government was named, during the transitional period, as well as the presence of an international desire, especially from Europe to provide the necessary assistance for the reconstruction of Syria.<\/h4>\n

Libya:<\/u><\/strong> <\/span><\/h3>\n

Libya witnessed various developments, reflecting the ongoing political stalemate, despite the efforts made to move the negotiating track, and the UN’s efforts to promote consensus between the conflicting parties, internal differences and divergences in external interests remain a major obstacle in achieving tangible progress, and as these challenges continue, the future of the Libyan crisis depends on the possibility of overcoming the current obstacles and activating more effective paths towards a sustainable political settlement that guarantees stability and security in the country.<\/h4>\n

Lebanon:<\/u><\/strong> <\/span><\/h3>\n

Lebanon continues to face serious political and security challenges that threaten its stability, as political stalemate and internal division deepen the current crisis, while security tensions, military escalation with Israel and border clashes with Syria continue to undermine recovery efforts, in this context, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and his government find themselves facing huge challenges, as they suffer from internal and external pressure to confront the Israeli escalation with Hezbollah without falling into the trap of complete escalation, which may return Lebanon to the state of war, which may further complicates the reform process and restore political stability.<\/h4>\n

Mali:<\/u><\/strong> <\/span><\/h3>\n

Mali witnessed an unprecedented escalation in the political and security scene, as military operations continued in the north and center, and internal and external pressure on the transitional government increased due to political arrests and human rights violations, and as the authorities seek to consolidate their sovereignty and enhance their military influence, security and political challenges continue to cast a shadow over the future of the country, which reflecting the complexity of Mali’s political and security landscape, as the transitional government moves towards strengthening its political independence while facing mounting security challenges amid growing international criticism of human rights violations.<\/h4>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Translated by\/ Abdulrahman Anwar Research assistant in the International Affairs Unit Editorial Conflicts in the Middle East and Africa are a reflection of the complexity of long-standing conflicts, reflecting the way they interact, their duration, the behavior and demands of the actors, the conditions of the parties to settle them, the dynamism that characterizes them, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":24326,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"pmpro_default_level":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[103,96],"tags":[287,290,295,294,296,289,292,288,293,291],"class_list":["post-24323","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-conflict-paths-series-in-the-middle-east-and-africa","category-special-editions","tag-ethiopia","tag-iraq","tag-lebanon","tag-libya","tag-mali","tag-somalia","tag-south-sudan","tag-sudan","tag-syria","tag-yemen","pmpro-has-access"],"yoast_head":"\nTHE CONFLICT PATH SERIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA ISSUE NO 42 March 2025 - \u0645\u0631\u0643\u0632 \u0634\u0627\u0641 \u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0632\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644\u064a\u0629<\/title>\n<meta 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