{"id":19973,"date":"2024-06-16T14:56:09","date_gmt":"2024-06-16T12:56:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/shaf-back.imholding.co.uk\/?p=19973"},"modified":"2024-06-25T15:01:14","modified_gmt":"2024-06-25T13:01:14","slug":"the-conflict-path-series-in-the-middle-east-and-africa-issue-no-32-may-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/shaf-back.imholding.co.uk\/en\/the-conflict-path-series-in-the-middle-east-and-africa-issue-no-32-may-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"THE CONFLICT PATH SERIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA ISSUE NO 32 May 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"

Introduction: <\/strong><\/h2>\n

Conflicts in the Middle East and Africa are a reflection of the complexity of protracted conflicts; The way in which they interact, their longevity, the behaviour and demands of the perpetrators, the parties\u2019 terms of settlement, the dynamism of which they are characterized, and the intensity of their competition reflect their complexity.<\/h4>\n

This complexity increases as these conflicts interact with global changes s interests become more overlapping and complex, and the challenges surrounding political settlements increase in order to increase the importance of careful follow-up and analysis of such interactions as to enable us to set the record straight for choosing the most appropriate policies and preparing for the scenarios presented, In this number, together with tracking regional conflicts, we are approaching their internal interlinkages and international and regional interaction.<\/h4>\n

The 33th \u00a0issue of the Shaf Centre\u2019s monthly Conflict Trail Report highlights the Middle East and Africa arena of conflict States, tracking important issues, highlights and local, regional and international interactions. The report covers the conflict situation in 10 States (Ethiopia, Somalia, Iraq, Yemen, South Sudan, Syria, Yemen, Libya, Lebanon and Mali)<\/h4>\n

Executive Summary<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Before we shed light on developments in the situation of conflict in the regions to be dealt with, the situation of conflict in the 10 States of concern is broadly presented before proceeding to the detailed report.<\/h4>\n

Ethiopia<\/strong>:<\/h2>\n

The scene in Ethiopia is dominated by a state of relative stability in the level of conditions and developments, interspersed with provocative attempts by both the Egyptian side and its continuation of the process of filling the dam, and failure to comply with the rules of international law and take into account the rights of the downstream countries, or Somalia, where it has taken the step of appointing a new ambassador to Somaliland. ; This was after the Mogadishu government closed the consulates in Puntland and Somaliland. The Ethiopian response came by converting the consulate into a full embassy, according to what was stated by the Minister of Somaliland, which may lead to a diplomatic rupture between Addis Ababa and Mogadishu.<\/h4>\n

Sudan<\/strong>:<\/h2>\n

Despite the escalation in the intensity of clashes between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces, there are still many efforts being made to resolve the existing conflict. For example, Egypt announced that it will host a conference of political forces, at the end of next June, and a \u201cprogress coordination\u201d meeting in Late May 2024 AD, which crystallized a political vision to end the war, in addition to the political parties signing a charter to manage the transitional political period in the country, and \u201cBlinken\u201d discussed with \u201cAlBurhan\u201d the necessity of ending the conflict in Sudan, at this time when the Sudanese economy is suffering from losses. fatal; Due to the continued deterioration of the value of the Sudanese national currency, the Sudanese oil sector reaching the brink of collapse, Sudan being exposed to many humanitarian crises, and the threat of famine now threatening the country.<\/h4>\n

Somalia<\/strong>:<\/h2>\n

The Federal Republic of Somalia seeks to protect Somali political unity, by resolving disputes with the state of Puntland, working to prevent the implementation of the agreement signed between Ethiopia and Somaliland, and promoting economic development, through cooperation with international partners, in addition to strengthening the fight against terrorist groups, such as Al-Shabaab movement; As a result of the completion of the withdrawal of the ATMIS mission, which may cause the security situation to deteriorate; Therefore, the Somali forces assume security responsibilities to continue the fight against terrorism, and the Somali Republic also works to strengthen its foreign relations in all fields, especially the security field.<\/h4>\n

Iraq<\/strong>:<\/h2>\n

It can be said that Iraq has become fully prepared to play a pivotal role in the Middle East region, and to move forward towards restoring its sovereignty. At the present time, the Iraqi government is working to address important problems, the most important of which is the fragility of Iraqi institutions and insufficient human resources, as well as the spread of armed groups. And the increasing possibility of the emergence of a new ISIS or other forms of terrorism. Therefore, demanding that Iraq end the work of the UN mission \u201cUNAMI\u201d will increase Iraq\u2019s reliance on its institutional capacity to address the various security, political, and economic challenges it faces, in addition to shifting the focus away from the political file to economic reform. Service delivery, sustainable development, and climate change.<\/h4>\n

Yemen<\/strong>:<\/h2>\n

Despite the relative calm that Yemen has witnessed during the past period, there are expectations of greater escalation during the next stage. As a result of the continuing accusations between the two parties to the conflict, regarding obstructing the achievement of peace; Whereas indicators – and even previous experiences – confirm that the Houthi group will not accept political solutions, but rather is heading towards a large-scale escalation during the coming period, especially with the movement announcing the fourth stage of escalation, by targeting ships supporting Israel in the Mediterranean Sea.<\/h4>\n

South Sudan<\/strong>:<\/h2>\n

The political leadership in South Sudan is moving to issue new laws. To win the upcoming elections, such as the presidential decision to appoint Mahjoub Bell as governor of Jonglei State, and the amendments that were introduced in many states, such as the amendments that were introduced to the government of Upper Nile State, the appointment of new ministers, and the dismissal of others from their positions, in addition to issuing new laws, such as laws Consumer protection, which represents an opportunity to attract voters to the political leadership in the upcoming elections, and to sign many agreements with neighboring countries, such as the agreements signed between Egypt and Uganda. At the same time, the security vacuum and instability are likely to affect some states and lead to deteriorating conditions. What may affect the electoral process; What hinders the process of peaceful transfer of power<\/h4>\n

Syria<\/strong>:<\/h2>\n

It appears from the aforementioned developments that the Syrian file is still tense, and that the situation may witness further aggravation against the backdrop of the current regional context, and that the Syrian refugee files and the Turkish response to the Kurdish crisis will largely dominate the Syrian scene in the coming period.<\/h4>\n

Libya<\/strong>:<\/h2>\n

At a time when stagnation dominates the apparent political process in Libya, the Deputy Special Representative for Political Affairs and Acting Head of the United Nations Mission to Libya, Stephanie Khoury, conducted a series of meetings with most of the parties to the political crisis in Tripoli and Benghazi, since the beginning of May, and discussed They brought with them the latest developments in the Libyan crisis, and in their meetings, they touched on the efforts of the UN mission. Aiming to advance the political process; For the general entitlement contract.<\/h4>\n

It is expected that Khoury will move to change the political scene in the country, by pushing for the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Aguila Saleh, the President of the Supreme Council of State, Mohamed Takala, and the President of the Presidential Council, Mohamed Al-Manfi, to begin implementing some of the agreements that were announced in their previous meeting, specifically The issue of forming a unified government in Libya; To end the government division.<\/h4>\n

Lebanon<\/strong>:<\/h2>\n

Everything that is happening in Lebanon confirms that the situation in the country is very dangerous, and there is waiting for some international and regional stations, and then the necessary thing will be built, and this is with regard to the political vacuum.<\/h4>\n

As for the security situation, it can be said: The issue of war has become very serious, and is not just a threat, and this is what Netanyahu and Ben Gvir confirmed, and this confirms that Lebanon awaits an unknown fate that has no resurrection.<\/h4>\n

Mali<\/strong>:<\/h2>\n

The month of May witnessed a continuation of the worsening security situation in the country, with the continuation of terrorist attacks to re-impose influence, in addition to the non-extension of the mandate of the European military mission to train Malian forces in the country, in conjunction with the deterioration of the humanitarian situation, and the presence of a deep political crisis represented by the lack of loyalty of the transitional authorities. With its commitments to hand<\/h4>\n

over power to civilians, and instead announcing the extension of the military\u2019s stay in power until 2027, as well as supporting the candidacy of the head of the military council, Colonel Assimi Goita, for the presidential elections after the end of the transitional period, during the national dialogue that witnessed a complete absence of opposition political entities, In a move that may worsen the political situation and cast more uncertainty on the future of democracy in the country.<\/h4>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Introduction: Conflicts in the Middle East and Africa are a reflection of the complexity of protracted conflicts; The way in which they interact, their longevity, the behaviour and demands of the perpetrators, the parties\u2019 terms of settlement, the dynamism of which they are characterized, and the intensity of their competition reflect their complexity. This complexity […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":19974,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"pmpro_default_level":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[103,96],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19973","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-conflict-paths-series-in-the-middle-east-and-africa","category-special-editions","pmpro-has-access"],"yoast_head":"\nTHE CONFLICT PATH SERIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA ISSUE NO 32 May 2024 - \u0645\u0631\u0643\u0632 \u0634\u0627\u0641 \u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0632\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644\u064a\u0629<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/shaf-back.imholding.co.uk\/en\/the-conflict-path-series-in-the-middle-east-and-africa-issue-no-32-may-2024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"THE CONFLICT PATH SERIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA ISSUE NO 32 May 2024 - \u0645\u0631\u0643\u0632 \u0634\u0627\u0641 \u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0632\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644\u064a\u0629\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Introduction: Conflicts in the Middle East and Africa are a reflection of the complexity of protracted conflicts; The way in which they interact, their longevity, the behaviour and demands of the perpetrators, the parties\u2019 terms of settlement, the dynamism of which they are characterized, and the intensity of their competition reflect their complexity. 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